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15 min 32 sec
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Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy

Adam Tooze explains how a widely predicted pandemic set off the sharpest economic contraction on record. He shows why governments rescued markets by breaking their own rules, and who gained or lost as a result.

Table of Content

If you want to spot the next big crisis early and judge who is handling it well, 2020 is the case to study. Covid struck 95 percent of the world’s economies and caused the deepest, widest contraction on record, yet experts had warned for years that something like it was coming. In Shutdown, economic historian Adam Tooze calls the pandemic a gray rhino: a huge, visible danger charging straight at us that we chose not to face.

His argument has two halves. First, willful unpreparedness let a virus halt public life across the planet. Then governments, often with little real leadership, broke their own economic rules and spent enough to keep the system standing. China came out stronger, the poor paid most, and the faith in small government cracked. Tooze’s account shows how a crisis travels through money as well as bodies, and it trains your eye for the rhinos still coming.

Virologists had all but named the date. Health agencies knew which communities would suffer first. So how did a threat this well understood still catch nearly every government on Earth without a plan?

A year before news from Wuhan reached him, one leader had warned his party about exactly this kind of risk, and a plan to handle it was ready. What that plan achieved, and what it cost, is hard to cheer and hard to dismiss.

In a single day, the price of the rich world’s most important commodity fell by almost two thirds. Yet the people in charge in London, Brussels and Washington were looking somewhere else entirely.

For investors, one asset is supposed to be safe no matter what happens. In March 2020 even that one wobbled, and the response from Washington tore up a rulebook that had held for decades.

Italy’s debts made the virus a danger to the whole continent’s finances. Europe had faced that kind of threat once before and handled it badly. This time it chose differently, while Beijing moved fast elsewhere.

When the US vetoed a plan to triple IMF aid to poor countries, the Global South was left largely to find its own credit. Habits learned in earlier hard times told a different story, though not a happy one.

On the day a mob stormed the US Capitol, the stock market went up. That strange fact says more about the economics of the pandemic than months of angry headlines did.

Tooze’s account ends on an odd kind of reassurance. Humanity behaved carelessly enough to let a virus threaten the world economy, and leadership was often missing. Yet central banks, legislatures and ordinary institutions improvised well enough to stop the collapse. In doing so they rewrote the rules: the small-government consensus of decades gave way within weeks, and in rich countries the fiscal taps stayed open. The bill for unpreparedness fell on those with the least, from poor Americans to the hospitals of Peru and Brazil to the many outside rich countries still waiting for a vaccine.

The gray rhino is the image to keep. It was enormous, it was visible, it was heading straight at us, and most leaders looked the other way. Tooze warns that more are coming. Find the risk in your own work that everyone calls likely and nobody funds, and give it an owner and a plan while it is still far off. When someone tells you a rule can never bend, recall that by the summer of 2020 the Federal Reserve held $7.5 trillion of Treasuries. And when a crisis eases, notice who came out ahead.

The next rhino will not wait for us to look up.

About this book

What is this book about?

In 2020 a virus hit 95 percent of the world's economies, put three billion people out of work or on furlough and kept 1.6 billion children home from school. To many it felt like an asteroid strike. Adam Tooze argues that it was nothing of the kind. Covid was a gray rhino: a huge, visible danger that experts had warned about for years and that governments left unfunded and unplanned. Tooze follows the crisis around the globe. He starts with Beijing's planned and repressive lockdown and the slow, scattered response in London, Brussels and Washington. He covers the near collapse of the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's record rescue and Europe's turn away from austerity. He also looks at the old defenses that let poorer countries find credit when rich nations held back help. Readers come away with a clear picture of how a health emergency travels through oil prices, bond markets and national debts. They see why the faith in small government broke in a single spring, and which lessons from 2020 matter for the next threat already heading our way.

Book Information

Rating:

Genre:

Economics, Politics & Current Affairs

Topics:

Geopolitics, Macroeconomics, Markets

Publisher:

Penguin Random House

Language:

English

Narrator:

Walter

First published:

September 7, 2021

Pages:

368

Length:

15 min 32 sec

Get the book:

Amazon

Who it's for

  • Investors and professionals

    Professionals and investors who want to understand how a health crisis spread through oil, bonds and national debt.

  • Leaders planning for risk

    Managers and founders planning for risks their organizations keep postponing.

  • Economic history buffs

    Readers of economic history who want a clear account of 2020 across China, Europe, America and the Global South.

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About the Author

Adam Tooze

Adam Tooze is a professor at Columbia University, where he directs the European Institute. He studied economics at King's College, Cambridge, and then in Berlin, and earned a doctorate in economic history at the London School of Economics. He taught at Cambridge and spent six years at Yale. His book The Wages of Destruction won a Wolfson History Prize in 2006, and he received a Philip Leverhulme Prize for Modern History in 2002. He also wrote Crashed and runs the newsletter Chartbook.

Ratings & Reviews

Ratings at a glance

3.4

Overall score based on 97 ratings.

What people think

Listeners view this work as a beneficial and enlightening guide to the international economic "polycrisis" sparked by the pandemic. Its vast scope earns praise, especially regarding the meticulous breakdown of government stimulus efforts and central bank measures across multiple countries. Additionally, listeners laud the author's extensive research and sharp narrative style, with one listener noting that the account provides a "compelling and stressful reminder" of 2020. While viewpoints are split on whether it functions as immediate journalism rather than a permanent history, many agree it is a vital resource for making sense of contemporary global instability.

Top reviews

Audrey

Adam Tooze has a remarkable gift for synthesizing the sheer chaos of global finance into something legible. This book is a masterclass in explaining the 'polycrisis' that defined 2020, moving seamlessly from the initial outbreak in Wuhan to the frantic rooms of the world’s central banks. I was particularly struck by how he frames the fiscal response as a revolutionary but strange creature—a mix of radical spending and desperate conservatism. His analysis of bond-buying as the 'functional twin' of fiscal policy clarifies why the markets didn't just implode instantly. Frankly, it is the most comprehensive account we have of how the world stayed afloat. While the pace is breathless, the depth of research into various national stimuli programs is staggering. It’s an essential, though often stressful, roadmap for understanding the fragile status quo we currently inhabit.

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Akosua

I've been following Tooze since 'Crashed,' and this feels like the essential sequel we needed for the COVID era. The way he identifies the 'polycrisis'—the intersection of public health, climate change, and financial instability—is brilliant. He doesn't just offer a laundry list of utopian solutions; instead, he narrates the crisis and identifies the actual social forces at play. Truth is, most of us were too busy surviving 2020 to notice the radical shifts happening in central banking. Tooze explains how we've moved into a world where 'anything we can actually do we can afford,' yet we still fail to address basic inequalities. The epilogue has been hitting my previously-held beliefs and breaking them ever since I finished it. It’s a pleasure to read a writer who is this creative and detailed. Highly recommended for anyone trying to wrap their head around modernity.

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Hannah

Is it too early to call this a history book? Tooze himself admits that writing this during the lockdown was a way to cope, and that immediacy shines through every page. It reads more like high-level reportage than a definitive historical text, but that’s exactly what makes it so gripping. He captures the 'organized irresponsibility' of international institutions like the WHO, which were simply unequipped for a crisis of this magnitude. I found the sections on the CARES Act and the sudden pivot to universal payments fascinating. It’s a sobering reminder of how 'too big to fail' has become our only governing logic. My only gripe is that it can feel a bit improvisational at times, especially toward the end. Still, if you want to understand the machinery behind the 2020 shutdown, this is where you start.

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Eye

Reading this was a visceral, often stressful reminder of just how fragile our global systems really are. I usually avoid books written in the heat of a crisis, but Tooze manages to provide an insightful narrative that doesn't just feel like a news recap. He highlights the tragic irony that in 2020, while the poor died in thousands, the richest actually saw their wealth explode. The book brilliantly exposes how 'everything must change so that everything remains the same,' a Bismarkian strategy used by central bankers to preserve a dangerous status quo. It’s an enraging but necessary read. I appreciated the broad scope, looking at nations outside of the US and Europe. The writing style is punchy and keeps you moving through some fairly dense economic theory. Definitely worth the time if you can handle the 2020 flashbacks.

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Tuck

Finally got around to finishing this massive deep dive into how COVID broke the world economy. I gotta say, the global scope is what really sets this apart. Tooze doesn't just stick to the Federal Reserve; he looks at the IMF and governments across the globe. It's an insightful look at how 2020 could have marked the end of neoliberalism, but instead ended up being a scramble to preserve the old guard. The scale of the interventions was like war finance, yet it didn't lead to any transformative change. Personally, I found the blow-by-blow account of the pandemic's progress a bit overwhelming at times, but it serves as a valuable resource. He captures that weird paradox where technocratic governance is both all-powerful and totally hollowing out. Not a perfect book, but definitely a necessary one for our current moment.

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Narong

The sheer scale of the government interventions described here is enough to make your head spin. Tooze provides a compelling narrative of the 2020 financial response, specifically how central bank bond buying became the twin of fiscal policy. It’s a deeply researched book that manages to make sense of the 'polycrisis' without oversimplifying the moving parts. Look, it’s not always an easy read—the sentence structures can be dense and the subject matter is grim. However, the insights into the Bismarkian nature of modern banking are worth the effort. My only real criticism is that it occasionally feels like a collection of essays rather than a unified book. He admits it was a coping mechanism for the lockdown, and that energy is evident. Still, it’s the most valuable resource out there for understanding the economic fallout of the pandemic.

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Nuk

As someone who felt completely lost during the news cycles of 2020, this book acted as a necessary map. It’s a history in 'media res,' written while the events were still unfolding, which gives it a unique, high-stakes tone. Tooze touches on everything from the Green New Deal to the Anthropocene crisis, arguing that we’ve been riding our luck for a century. The analysis of how the party-state in China acted in contrast to pluralistic democracies was particularly sharp, even if I didn't agree with every conclusion. Not gonna lie, some of the economic jargon went over my head, but the general narrative of 'organized irresponsibility' was clear as day. It’s a sobering look at how the rich got richer while the systems we rely on barely held together. Definitely a solid four-star effort from the most brilliant econ observer working today.

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Pot

While I admire the ambition of this work, there are some glaring omissions that stopped me from giving it a higher score. For a book that purports to explain how the world economy shook, the lack of focus on the shipping industry is baffling. Tooze spends very little time on the actual logistics of trade, the logjams at ports, or the soaring costs of container availability which drove so much inflation. Furthermore, his definition of 'neoliberalism' feels way too plasticine; he stretches the term to fit almost any government action, which weakens his overall theoretical framework. The statistics and charts are definitely helpful for tracking the virus’s spread and the subsequent economic shocks. However, I felt his treatment of China’s early data was a bit too accepting. It’s a decent 3-star read for the data alone, but it lacks the rigor of his previous books.

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Tun

To be fair, Tooze writes with an urgency that perfectly captures the frantic energy of 2020. The book functions well as a compendium of anecdotes and numbers, helping to track the vaccine funding models and the various national furlough programs. But there are gaps. I was disappointed by the minimal exploration of China's conduct at ground-zero in late 2019. This absence makes the economic analysis feel incomplete. Also, the chapter attempting to answer his left-wing critics, particularly Perry Anderson, felt slapped on and hurried. It didn't have the same intellectual energy as the rest of the book. It’s a useful resource if you need statistics on the 2020 stimuli, but it doesn't quite reach the heights of a definitive history. A solid middle-of-the-road effort that perhaps came out a year too soon.

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Wacharapol

This book feels like it was written by a technocratic neoliberal celebrating the very systems that failed us in the first place. I speak from several degrees to Tooze's left, and I found his take on the Green New Deal particularly troubling. He describes the Dems' version as pristine, ignoring how it was essentially a watered-down ripoff of the original Green Party proposal. Why ignore that context? Probably because it would spoil his narrative. He also seems to accept China’s COVID statistics at face value, which is frankly laughable given the restrictions on information leaving the country. The whole project feels rushed, like he prioritized being a commentator for the New York Times over being a serious historian. It lacks the breadth and second-order coherence of 'Crashed.' This is a defeat of Tooze the theorist at the hands of Tooze the pundit.

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Questions about this book

Tooze argues that Covid was a gray rhino, a large and predictable threat that governments chose not to prepare for. It hit 95 percent of the world’s economies and caused the sharpest contraction on record. Even without strong leadership, central banks and legislatures stopped a collapse by breaking old rules, spending trillions and ending the long dominance of small-government economics. China gained ground, and the poorest suffered most.

A gray rhino is a huge, highly likely danger that people can see coming but ignore. Tooze applies the term to Covid because virologists, after SARS, swine flu and MERS, were nearly certain a contagious flu-like virus would arrive. Xi Jinping had used the same phrase a year before the outbreak when he told his party to plan for major risks.

In March 2020 investors rushed to sell US Treasuries, and too few buyers appeared, threatening every market. Interest rate cuts did nothing, so Jerome Powell had the Fed buy the unwanted Treasuries, holding $7.5 trillion by summer. The Fed also lent directly to companies and bought hundreds of billions in corporate debt, while Congress passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act.

The US vetoed a plan to triple IMF aid, so Peru, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand and Brazil, among other countries, leaned on defenses built over earlier crises. They had borrowed little in foreign currencies, let their currencies float, kept their banks away from risky bets and limited fast-moving foreign money. Their finances held, though their health systems were overwhelmed.

The book suggests naming the likely risks nobody has funded and giving them an owner and a plan before they arrive, as Beijing did and the West did not. It shows that rules called unbreakable can change fast in an emergency. On a smaller scale, it suggests owing money in the currency you earn and being wary of money that can leave quickly.

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Shutdown

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