Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future
Johan Norberg
Shows how trade, immigration and the free exchange of ideas made societies rich, from Phoenician seafarers to the Dutch Republic, and why fear keeps pushing people toward closed borders and strongmen that stall progress.

1 min 00 sec
When times turn frightening, most of us want to pull up the drawbridge: fewer foreigners, less trade, a firm hand in charge. In Open, Swedish writer Johan Norberg argues that this reflex has ended one golden age after another, from Baghdad to Song dynasty China. His claim is that progress has always come from swapping goods, skills and ideas with strangers, and that prosperity fades whenever fear talks a society into closing itself off.
Norberg follows that idea from early humans throwing stones together, through Phoenician traders and a Dutch Republic built by newcomers, to the jobs the internet created and the climate problem still unsolved. He also explains why our brains pull us toward walls and strongmen. What you gain is a clear way to read the news, your industry and your own team: when people stop sharing ideas, growth stops, and the usual cure is to open up again.
1 min 46 sec
Neanderthals had larger brains than our ancestors, yet their way of life faded while ours spread. The difference started millions of years earlier with a skill that sounds trivial, and it still decides which teams pull ahead.
1 min 38 sec
Most people assume cities began as fortresses. Norberg sees the order reversed, and a seafaring people who gave the world its alphabet show both what openness built and what one weakness cost them.
2 min 04 sec
Baghdad and Song dynasty China once rivaled anything Europe later achieved. Both lost their lead in a remarkably similar way, and the same sequence of events can play out inside a company or a country.
1 min 46 sec
A forgotten library in Toledo restarted European learning, and a small republic with few resources of its own soon outgrew Spain and Portugal. Its advantage came from people other countries had pushed away.
1 min 52 sec
A country that grew almost nothing became the richest of its age. A 1995 magazine cover predicted the internet would wreck employment. Both cases challenge the way most people keep score in trade.
2 min 00 sec
Life expectancy has more than doubled and poverty has fallen from nearly everyone to fewer than one in ten, yet calls to shut borders keep returning. One psychology experiment shows how a single thought can change whom we trust.
1 min 55 sec
A dictator tried death threats to build a film industry. A superpower failed at computers. Norberg uses both to question China’s future and to sketch how the climate problem might actually get solved.
1 min 13 sec
Norberg’s history reads like a long argument with our own nerves. People who traded, mixed and argued with strangers grew richer and wiser, from stone-throwers on the savannah to the newcomers who powered the Dutch Republic. Then a shock came, someone blamed the openness, and the doors swung shut. In his pattern, the dark years follow the closing, not the shock alone.
He also rejects the comforting idea that life used to be simpler or better. People today are far better off than in the 1950s or at the start of the twentieth century, when poverty was everywhere.
The practical use is catching the reflex in yourself. When a crisis tempts you toward fewer outsiders and more control, recall the students whose view of a Jewish person soured once they thought about death, and look at the decision again. When a new technology frightens you, remember the French count of 2.4 jobs gained for each one lost. And when a problem will not move, widen the circle of people working on it.
Every society that shut its doors believed it was saving what it had. Mostly, it locked out what came next.
In good times, open borders and free trade feel natural. In a crisis, the instinct is to shut them. Johan Norberg argues that this instinct has cost humanity dearly, again and again, and that openness to trade, newcomers and ideas has driven human progress since our ancestors first hunted together. Norberg traces a repeating cycle. A society opens and prospers, a shock such as an invasion arrives, openness gets the blame, and a dark period follows. He traces the cycle in the Islamic Golden Age centered on Baghdad and in Song dynasty China, both of which closed after Mongol invasions, while Rome prospered through tolerance until it turned intolerant and the Dutch Republic's welcome to oppressed immigrants made it the world's wealthiest. He then turns to psychology, showing how thoughts of mortality push people toward their own group and toward strongmen. Readers get a long view of why trade is not a contest with one winner, why tightly controlled economies struggle to innovate, and why Norberg believes problems from new technology to climate change are best solved by sharing knowledge widely.
Professionals uneasy about rising nationalism who want a long historical view of what closed borders cost.
Founders and managers deciding whether to hire outsiders, share knowledge or keep control tight.
History readers curious why Baghdad, Song China and the Dutch Republic rose and fell.
Johan Norberg is a Swedish writer, born in 1973, who studied at the University of Stockholm, where his subject was the History of Ideas. He has been a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. since 2007, and in 2017 he became an executive editor at Free To Choose Media, making documentaries for US public television. His books have appeared in more than 25 countries. His 2016 book Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future was picked as a book of the year by both The Economist and The Guardian, and he later wrote The Capitalist Manifesto, published in 2023.
Listeners find the book to be thought-provoking, characterizing it as a manifesto for openness. They also value its high level of readability, with one listener describing the text as compelling.
Picked this up after reading 'Progress' and it's a stellar follow-up that explains why humanity thrives when we don't build walls. Norberg has this incredible ability to make complex historical shifts feel like a fast-paced narrative. The way he connects the Phoenician trade routes to modern economic success is nothing short of brilliant. Truth be told, I was worried it would be a dry academic slog, but it's actually an eminently readable defense of liberal society. He moves effortlessly from the Song Dynasty's innovation to the zero-sum fallacies of the modern era. While some might find his optimism naive, I found it to be a necessary sunshine story in a world that feels increasingly closed off. It's a compelling manifesto for anyone who believes that human ingenuity is our greatest resource. Highly recommended for history buffs and optimists alike.
Show moreThis book is essentially a manifesto for the modern era, reminding us that globalization isn't the enemy we’ve been told it is. Norberg’s writing is punchy and his research is deep, covering everything from hunter-gatherer evolution to the Dutch Republic. I was particularly struck by the 'Us and Them' section which explains how our tribal brains are easily manipulated by zero-sum thinking. It’s a bit of a reality check. We often think our current problems are unique, but the author shows how the same 'anticipatory anxiety' has plagued every major period of progress. Personally, I found the section on 'Open Minds' and the Republic of Letters to be the most inspiring part of the whole work. It’s a thick book, but it moves quickly because the prose is so clear. This is the kind of reading we need to combat the xenophobia popping up in today's politics.
Show moreTruth is, we live in an era of defensive crouches, and Norberg provides the perfect intellectual antidote. He describes these major episodes of progress called 'efflorescences' and shows how they are almost always cut short by people who fear change. Whether it's religious elites or workers with outmoded skills, the resistance to the 'new' is a constant in human history. I loved the section on 'Open Doors' and how immigration has historically been a engine for growth rather than a threat. He uses the American melting pot and the Mongols as examples to show how diversity leads to strength. The writing style is very accessible, almost like a long-form magazine article but with the depth of a scholarly text. It’s a solskenshistoria—a sunshine story—that we desperately need. If you're feeling pessimistic about the state of the world, give this a read. It will change your perspective on where we are headed.
Show moreAfter hearing Norberg on a podcast, I had to see if his writing was as compelling as his speaking, and I wasn't disappointed. This book is a tour de force of historical optimism. He manages to weave together evolutionary biology, behavioral economics, and ancient history into a single, cohesive argument for the open society. I found the section on 'Anticipatory Anxiety' to be particularly relevant to our current political climate. We are constantly told to be afraid of the future, but Norberg shows that innovation always faces resistance from those who stand to lose. The prose is elegant and the chapters are structured in a way that makes it easy to digest. It’s a refreshing change from the usual doom-and-gloom non-fiction. This is a book that celebrates human potential and the incredible things we can achieve when we simply stay open to new ideas.
Show moreAs someone who identifies as fairly left-wing, I didn’t expect to enjoy this as much as I did. In my experience, Cato Institute fellows can be a bit dogmatic, and Norberg’s gushing praise for Uber mowing down regulations made me roll my eyes. Never take down a fence until you know why it was put up, right? However, the author is an incredibly compelling writer and his central thesis about openness is hard to argue with. The way he traces progress through the lens of trade and immigration is masterfully done. I particularly liked the sections on how empires like the Persians succeeded by absorbing diverse traditions rather than crushing them. It’s a thought-provoking manifesto that challenged my cynicism about globalization. Even if you disagree with his libertarian methods, the historical survey of human achievement is well worth your time.
Show moreEver wonder why certain civilizations just suddenly stop innovating and start to decay? Norberg argues it’s the shift from openness to tribalism, and he uses some fascinating historical examples to prove it. The chapter on the Song Dynasty was a real eye-opener for me regarding how inward-turning policies can kill a golden age. To be fair, he definitely has a specific political agenda, and his belief that liberal capitalism is the 'pinnacle' of systems with no contradictions feels a bit much. Markets have real failures, like environmental degradation, that a few entrepreneurs can't just 'innovate' away. But despite those gripes, the book is varied and thoughtful. It’s one of those rare texts that makes you look at the evening news through a much longer historical lens. Sentence for sentence, it’s one of the most engaging non-fiction books I’ve picked up this year.
Show moreThe chapter on 'Us and Them' is worth the price of admission alone for how it breaks down modern identity politics. Norberg argues that we are hard-wired for tribalism, yet our greatest achievements only happen when we overcome those instincts. It’s a fascinating tension. The book is well-supported with historical data, tracing the 'efflorescences' of growth that occur when societies stop being afraid of the 'other.' I did find his take on the 'physical fallacy'—the idea that value only comes from manufacturing—to be particularly insightful for our digital age. My only real complaint is that he seems to think liberal capitalism is perfect. He literally writes that we can't produce a system with fewer contradictions, which is a pretty bold claim to make. Regardless of your politics, the historical anecdotes are varied and keep the pages turning. It’s a thoughtful, readable, and timely contribution to the global conversation.
Show moreFinally got around to reading this and the historical breadth is genuinely impressive. Norberg takes us from the ancient Greeks to the Industrial Revolution to explain why some societies flourish while others stagnate. The book's argument is well-supported: periods of openness lead to human achievement, while periods of conservatism and xenophobia lead to regression. I especially appreciated his take on 'cultural appropriation,' arguing that it's actually a form of openness that drives innovation. Gotta say, he has a lot more faith in small-scale entrepreneurial experimentation than I do, especially regarding climate change. He seems to think a carbon tax and 'openness' will solve everything. Despite that libertarian tilt, the book remains a thought-provoking and incredibly readable piece of work. It’s a great reminder that the 'good old days' weren't actually that good. We are better off when we are connected.
Show moreNot what I expected, though I did eventually finish it after a few stops and starts. Got about halfway through and realized the central message is basically just 'openness is good' repeated in different historical contexts. Don't get me wrong, Norberg is a talented historian, and his examples of the Roman and Ottoman empires are interesting. But after a while, the libertarian drumbeat gets a little repetitive. To be fair, the second half of the book on tribalism and identity politics is much stronger than the first. He has some really sharp insights into how social media amplifies our 'us versus them' instincts. Still, I felt like he glossed over the darker sides of the free market, like how 'openness' can sometimes lead to wealth concentration. It’s a decent read, but it didn't quite live up to the hype for me.
Show moreLook, I tried to keep an open mind, but the neoliberal bias here is just too thick to ignore. Norberg is a historian, but his Cato Institute roots show through in every chapter where he deifies the free market at the expense of everything else. He makes this bizarre claim on page 363 that it is not possible to produce a system with fewer internal contradictions than liberal democratic capitalism. That's a massive leap of faith that ignores environmental collapse and the atomization of labor. While the historical examples about the Phoenicians are occasionally interesting, the underlying 'all regulation is a wall' narrative feels incredibly one-sided. He gushes about Uber while ignoring the precariousness it creates for workers. It’s an easy read, sure, but it’s essentially a long defense of a very specific political agenda that hasn't worked for everyone. Not for me.
Show moreNorberg argues that human progress has always depended on openness: trading freely, welcoming immigrants and exchanging ideas with other cultures. Societies that did this, from the Phoenicians to the Dutch Republic, grew rich and inventive. When a shock such as an invasion made people blame openness and close up, a dark period followed. Because fear pushes us toward our own group and toward strongmen, he says openness has to be defended deliberately.
Norberg says the Neanderthal lineage did not truly vanish; it mixed with Homo sapiens. What disappeared was the Neanderthal way of life. Despite larger brains, Neanderthals mostly stayed close to home in cold northern Europe, while Homo sapiens traveled and traded. Trade taught our ancestors to divide labor, letting skilled hunters hunt and skilled clothes-makers make clothes, which brought new prosperity.
It is Norberg’s name for the period when Europe, in the religious fervor of the Dark Ages, destroyed the works of Aristotle. Meanwhile the Islamic world, centered on Baghdad, translated and expanded that learning, founded institutions such as Al-Karaouine in Morocco and produced modern algebra. Europe recovered the knowledge after 1085, when Christian forces found a Muslim library in Toledo holding what remained of Aristotle.
He argues the boom was not planned: in the 1990s farmers started private businesses on their own, and the government had to accept it, later adding economic free zones and foreign advisors. Since 2008, Norberg contends, the economy has been in steady decline. An authoritarian government dislikes surprises, he says, and innovation needs people free to experiment and mix with outside ideas.
Watch for the instinct to close up during a crisis, whether that means hiring only familiar people or trusting a single strong voice; Norberg shows how reminders of mortality make us favor our own group. Judge new technology by the work it creates as well as the work it removes, as with the 2.4 new jobs per lost job a French survey found. And bring outside minds to hard problems.
William J. Bernstein
Ishmael Beah
Yanis Varoufakis
Ben Macintyre
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