On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global
Henry M. Paulson
A former US Treasury Secretary explains how China tested market reforms on its way to becoming the world's second-largest economy. He also shows why its debt and pollution now concern everyone else.

1 min 05 sec
If China still looks like a cheap factory floor to you, you may be missing how it got rich and where its real risks now lie. When China began its economic rise, the internet still ran on dial-up connections. Little more than 30 years later, China had become the world’s second-largest economy. In Dealing with China, former Goldman Sachs chief and US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson explains that change from the inside.
His argument is that China grew by borrowing Western market tools and testing them step by step, and that the reforms cost many workers dearly. The work still left undone, on debt and pollution, now affects every other country, so the United States gains more by cooperating with China than by fighting it. Along the way you meet a phone company that needed 350 accountants to understand itself, an oil firm with 1.5 million workers, and pollution that crosses the Pacific. By the end, you will have a sharper way to read any news about China.
1 min 59 sec
A poor, centrally planned country set out to learn capitalism without staking everything on it. The method it chose produced famous companies and an extraordinary growth rate, and it works far beyond economics.
2 min 03 sec
China spent billions on phone lines and still ran short of money. Fixing it meant opening the books to strangers, and the task was so tangled that hundreds of accountants worked on it full time.
2 min 03 sec
One Chinese oil company employed nearly twenty times as many people as a Western rival. Making it fit for global investors meant a decision that sent protesters into the streets on two continents.
2 min 00 sec
China could produce brilliant engineers yet struggled to train people who could run a business. Its banks had a worse problem, one that grew until it threatened the whole economy.
1 min 50 sec
China’s growth created two problems that will not stay inside its borders. One shows up in financial statistics and the other in the air and water. Paulson explains which numbers to watch and what he thinks would help.
2 min 17 sec
For years, Chinese officials heard a different American message from every cabinet member they met. One change to the way Washington talked to Beijing produced results at the very first meeting.
1 min 51 sec
Many Americans ask why they should help their biggest economic competitor. Paulson’s answer involves the air over California and thousands of American factory jobs saved by a Chinese company.
1 min 10 sec
The China that Paulson describes is neither a miracle nor a menace. It borrowed proven market tools and tried them in protected zones. Then it sold shares in its companies, retrained its managers and cleaned up its banks, often at a heavy price to its own workers. That rise made it a power whose debts and smog cross borders. For that reason, Paulson believes cooperation now serves American interests as much as Chinese ones.
His account leaves you with some useful habits. When China is in the news, look past the growth figure. Check whether debt is rising faster than the economy, and whether state companies are run for the market or by the Party. When anyone boasts of a dramatic turnaround, ask who paid for it, as the laid-off oil workers did. And when you deal with a large partner, make sure everyone on your side gives the same message.
It took China more than 350 accountants to understand a single telephone company. Understanding the whole country takes the same patience, and it gives you a clearer view of the forces shaping your own economy.
When China started opening up its economy in the late 1970s, hardly anyone predicted that it would grow into the world's second-biggest economy. Henry M. Paulson watched much of that rise up close, first as a Goldman Sachs banker and later as US Treasury Secretary. In Dealing with China he explains how it happened. His account starts with Deng Xiaoping's reforms and special economic zones, which worked as test sites for Western business practices. It then follows the sale of shares in China Telecom, the painful remaking of the oil industry, new training for Chinese managers and the cleanup of bad loans at the state banks. Paulson does not hide the price: tens of millions of state jobs disappeared. He then looks ahead. Rising debt and severe pollution threaten China's growth and could hurt the world economy. Paulson argues that clear communication and real cooperation between the two powers serve American interests too, and he backs this with a pollution study and examples of Chinese investment creating American jobs. Readers come away with a clear map of how modern China was built and the signs to watch in the years ahead.
Professionals who follow China in the news and want to know how its economy was built.
Founders and managers who deal with Chinese partners, suppliers or investors.
Students of economics and policy weighing whether America should compete with China or cooperate.
Henry M. Paulson Jr., known as Hank, rose to become chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs after joining the firm in 1974. President George W. Bush nominated him as Secretary of the Treasury in 2006, and he served until January 2009. His memoir On the Brink gives an insider's account of the effort to stop the global financial system from collapsing. In 2011 he founded the Paulson Institute, which he chairs. It works for sustainable growth and a cleaner environment, starting with the United States and China.
Henry M. Paulson
Listeners find this work to be a rewarding experience, citing the high quality of the prose and its accessible organization. They appreciate the wealth of information and sharp perspectives, with one listener noting it provides a thorough guide to business dealings with China. Listeners admire the author's intellect, and one review highlights their deep understanding of Chinese culture.
The sheer level of detail Henry Paulson provides regarding his time at the Treasury is nothing short of impressive. This isn't just a dry retelling of facts; it’s a brilliant deep dive into the high-stakes world of international diplomacy. I was particularly struck by how the author navigates the complex cultural nuances of his Chinese counterparts while maintaining a clear focus on American interests. Truth is, his intelligence and experience shine through every chapter, offering a thorough guide for anyone looking to understand modern business relations. The writing is surprisingly fluid for such a technical subject, making it a very worthwhile read for professionals and history buffs alike. I particularly appreciated the sections on environmental preservation which showed a different side of his work.
Show moreFinally got around to finishing this massive tome and the insights into Chinese leadership are unparalleled. Paulson managed to bridge the gap between Western business practices and Eastern political realities in a way few others have. His stories about meeting with various CEOs and politicians are both fascinating and educational. You can tell he has a genuine respect for the country, yet he remains realistic about the challenges of the U.S.-China relationship. The book is an easy-to-read format despite its length, and I found myself highlighting passages on almost every page. For anyone who wants to understand why the two countries behave the way they do today, this is essential reading. It’s easily one of the best books on the subject.
Show moreThis book provides a masterful guide to the complexities of high-stakes negotiation at the highest levels of government. Paulson’s ability to penetrate difficult environments and succeed is nothing short of remarkable. I was impressed by the detailed information he shares about the inner workings of the Chinese political machine. Unlike other books that offer a bird's-eye view, this gets you right into the room where the decisions are made. It’s clear that his intelligence and relentless follow-through were key to his success. The writing is crisp, making complex financial concepts accessible to anyone. Truthfully, it’s one of the most brilliant insights into the Chinese business world I’ve ever read. It’s a must-have for anyone doing business in Asia.
Show morePaulson’s intelligence shines through every page of this meticulously documented account of US-China relations. He doesn't just describe policy; he explains the 'why' behind the negotiations. I was particularly impressed by the easy-to-read format which manages to make complex financial concepts accessible to a layperson. The truth is, many books on this topic are either too academic or too superficial, but this hits the sweet spot perfectly. You get a real sense of his deep understanding of Chinese culture and the immense patience required for high-stakes diplomacy. It’s an essential addition to any business library and a fascinating look at a man who was at the center of global events for over a decade.
Show moreEver wonder how the giants of Wall Street actually manage to navigate the halls of power in Beijing? Paulson provides a unique, first-hand account of exactly that. The book is meticulously documented and offers a level of insight that only someone who sat at the bargaining table could provide. I found his analysis of Chinese political behavior to be spot-on, especially the parts detailing the Strategic Economic Dialogue. While some sections are a bit heavy on the banking jargon, the overall narrative is accessible and highly informative. It’s a solid piece of work that helps demystify how the U.S. and China interact behind closed doors. Highly recommended for those interested in the intersection of finance and global politics.
Show moreAs someone who works in international trade, I found the chapters regarding the Strategic Economic Dialogue to be the strongest part of the book. Paulson does an excellent job explaining the structural reforms China needs to make to remain a global power. His intellect is obvious, and the way he describes the topography and environmental needs of the region adds a nice layer of depth to a mostly financial book. My only real complaint is that it dives a bit too deeply into the Goldman Sachs mandates early on. It feels like two different books mashed together: a corporate history and a diplomatic memoir. Still, the strategic thinking on display near the end makes the slower parts worth the slog. A very solid four stars.
Show morePicked this up on a recommendation and was pleasantly surprised by the level of detail regarding the Goldman years. It’s a very good piece to read if you want to know how the elite of the financial world think. Paulson's analysis of the behaviors and reasons behind China's economic actions is very spot-on. I found page 357 to be particularly insightful in terms of understanding the Chinese mindset. While some parts are a bit long-winded, the overall value of the information provided is immense. It provides a thorough guide to navigating a culture that is often misunderstood by Westerners. Just be prepared for a lot of banking talk before you get to the meat of the political stuff.
Show moreTo be fair, this reads much more like a corporate diary than the strategic manual I was expecting. While there are some fascinating tidbits about his time as Secretary of the Treasury, the narrative often gets bogged down in the minutiae of banking at Goldman Sachs. At times, the tone feels a bit self-congratulatory, which can be off-putting if you're looking for an objective analysis of the Chinese economy. It’s a decent enough memoir, but it feels like he’s playing it safe to avoid burning bridges with his current think tank's partners. If you have the patience to dig through the long-winded corporate stories, there is some value here, but it definitely requires some effort to finish.
Show moreNot what I expected when I picked this up to learn about global macroeconomics. I was hoping for a breakdown of how China became the main US creditor, but instead, I got a play-by-play of the author's personal banking career. Reading this feels like sitting through a very long, very dry corporate meeting where the minutes are being read aloud. There is far too much focus on his own deals and not enough on what actually makes the Chinese economy thrive. Frankly, the writing is bland and doesn't deliver on the promises made by the title. If you want a technical memoir about a CEO's life, you might enjoy it, but it's a bit of a letdown for the general reader.
Show moreLook, if you want a book about how great Henry Paulson thinks he is, then this is definitely for you. This is strictly a memoir masquerading as a strategic guide, and a pretty boring one at that. 'Dear Diary, today I saved the world economy and the environment again.' I found the tone to be incredibly condescending toward his counterparts in Beijing, which was quite jarring. What’s most frustrating is how he only dares to badmouth Chinese leaders who have already been removed from power. It feels calculated and overly cautious, lacking the raw honesty I expected from someone in his position. A total letdown for anyone seeking actual economic depth or an unbiased perspective. I struggled to finish it.
Show moreIt explains how China became the world’s second-largest economy in little more than 30 years. Paulson traces the rise from Deng Xiaoping’s reforms and special economic zones, through the sale of shares in state companies, to changes in business education and the banks. He then looks at the risks ahead, mainly debt and pollution, and argues that the United States should cooperate with China.
Paulson credits the reforms that began after Mao Zedong’s death in 1976. State companies were allowed to sell goods on the open market at flexible prices. Special economic zones offered lower taxes and easier foreign investment, and China used them to test Western practices. Later, selling shares in firms such as China Telecom brought in capital and global accounting standards.
He names two. The first is debt, which expanded more quickly than the economy itself, rising to 206 percent of GDP by 2014 after standing at 130 percent in 2008. He suggests running state companies on commercial lines, free from Party control over executives. The second is the environment: hazardous air in Beijing, depleted groundwater in the north and polluted rivers and lakes.
Because China’s problems reach America. A study from the National Academy of Sciences in 2014 found that Chinese manufacturers are the source of as much as a quarter of sulfate pollution along the US West Coast. Chinese investment also supports American jobs: the auto parts maker Wanxiang employs about 6,000 Americans and saved more than 3,500 jobs during the financial crisis.
Several practical lessons follow from the book. Test big changes in a limited area first, as China did with its special economic zones. Keep your accounts clear enough that outsiders can trust them. Ask who will bear the cost before you push through a fast restructuring. And speak with one voice when dealing with a large partner, which is how the Strategic Economic Dialogue improved US and China talks.
William J. Bernstein
John Rawls
Miles Taylor
Yanis Varoufakis
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