The Fractured Age: How Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy
Explains why the global economy is breaking into rival blocs led by the United States and China, why neutral middle positions are disappearing, and how companies and countries can adapt to the new rules.

Table of Content
1. Introduction
1 min 03 sec
Most people who deal with suppliers, clients or investments abroad still carry a mental map of one open global market, and that map is already out of date. In The Fractured Age, Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, argues that the world is not deglobalizing at all. It is breaking into rival blocs, where your security partners increasingly decide your trading partners.
Shearing sets this inside a long pattern. Since Roman times, trade has swung between connection and collapse, and each shock that exposes dependence pushes nations back behind harder borders. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the contest over computer chips were that shock for our era.
Follow his argument and the headlines about tariffs, sanctions and supply chains start to share one logic. It also gives you a way to judge where a company, a career or a country stands now that efficiency has stopped being the deciding rule.
2. See today's split as one swing of an old pendulum
1 min 57 sec
From Roman glass to the Silk Road, trade has connected the world and then broken apart more than once. Shearing finds a repeating sequence in those swings, and it tells us how long the current one may last.
3. Spot the breaking point inside the boom years
2 min 01 sec
After 1989, trade and money crossed borders faster than the world economy itself could grow. The same links that spread wealth were also building a weakness that few leaders wanted to see.
4. Spot the moment security started to outrank price
2 min 14 sec
An empty shelf in March 2020, a ship stuck in a canal, a sudden jump in European gas bills. Each looked like a separate crisis, yet together they changed how executives and governments make their choices.
5. A map of the three camps reshaping trade
2 min 30 sec
Planners in three capitals now sketch a world economy that would have looked absurd a few years ago. Some countries are picking a side, while a clever few are finding ways to profit from not picking.
6. See what staying neutral now costs you
2 min 10 sec
For decades, the most profitable place in the world economy was the space between rivals. A Korean battery maker, a German chemical firm and a small Baltic country all discovered what has happened to that space.
7. Build for a world of digital borders
2 min 15 sec
Imagine explaining to a young colleague in 2035 that one phone once worked everywhere. Shearing forecasts what that world looks like, who will struggle in it, and which countries and companies are already positioned to do well.
8. Conclusion
1 min 09 sec
Shearing’s book adds up to a change in the deciding rule of the world economy. For thirty years after the Berlin Wall fell, the cheapest supplier won, wherever it was. Now the first question is whose side a supplier is on, and price comes second. By 2035, he expects multiple internets, parallel payment systems and prices about 15 percent higher to feel as normal as open borders once did, until the pendulum eventually swings back.
The book supports a few concrete moves. Look at the inputs your work relies on and ask which bloc each one sits in, and what a single closed port or factory would do to you. If you serve customers on both sides, put a number on the duplicated systems and the political exposure, the way the Korean battery maker was forced to. And invest in skills or structures that can present a different face to different markets, as the flexible companies Shearing describes already do.
The webcam missing from the shelf in 2020 was never really about a webcam. It was the first sign that the map had changed.
About this book
What is this book about?
For three decades after the Berlin Wall fell, the cheapest supplier won, wherever it happened to be. Supply chains crossed continents, money moved freely and businesses planned as if borders barely mattered. Neil Shearing argues that this era is over, but not in the way most people expected. The world is not retreating from trade. It is dividing into competing blocs, and security partnerships increasingly decide who trades with whom. Shearing places this shift inside a long historical pattern of integration and fracture, then traces the shocks that triggered it: the 2008 crisis, the pandemic, energy used as a weapon after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the fight over semiconductors. He maps the American camp, the Chinese camp and the multi-aligned countries in between, and shows why staying neutral now brings pressure from every side. Readers get a clear framework for reading tariffs, sanctions and supply chain news, along with Shearing's view of the world in 2035 and the strategies, from flexible corporate structures to regional manufacturing hubs, that he expects to succeed.
Book Information
Who it's for
Global managers and founders
Managers and founders whose suppliers, customers or investors sit in more than one part of the world.
Wanting clarity on tariffs
Professionals in trade, finance or tech who want a clear frame for tariffs, sanctions and supply chain news.
Career switchers weighing skills
Career switchers deciding which skills and markets will hold value as the global economy divides.
About the Author
Neil Shearing
Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, where he leads its team of economists and shapes its global research. He was previously the firm's Chief Emerging Markets Economist, won several awards for forecast accuracy and ran its New York operations. Earlier he advised HM Treasury on fiscal policy and the global economy. He holds economics degrees from the University of York and the University of London, is an Associate Fellow of the Global Economy Programme at Chatham House, and comments on the world economy in the Financial Times and on TV and radio.
Ratings & Reviews
Ratings at a glance
What people think
Listeners value *The Fractured Age* as a sharp and relevant examination of our changing geopolitical environment, commending its thorough breakdown of world trade and how economies rely on one another. Furthermore, listeners describe the writing style as sophisticated but easy to understand, observing that the author effectively links intricate financial theories with historical background and human emotion. They also point out the book's forward-thinking perspective; specifically, one listener emphasizes its "analytical depth" and striking metaphors, including the description of supply chains as “glass rivers.” Finally, listeners believe the text serves as a crucial guide for interpreting today's international divisions, making contemporary news clearer without oversimplifying the underlying issues.
Top reviews
As someone who follows international relations closely, I found this to be an exceptionally insightful look at the emerging US-China blocs. Shearing argues convincingly that the US bloc will maintain its edge through economic diversity and the continued dominance of the dollar, even as China weaponizes rare earths. The analysis of how middle powers like India and Brazil are navigating these fault lines is some of the best I’ve read in recent years. Truth is, the book clarified a lot of the chaos I see in the daily news without resorting to simplistic soundbites. It’s intellectually rich and provides a clear-eyed view of our shifting security environment. Every chapter feels like a masterclass in connecting the dots between history and future policy. Truly essential reading for anyone trying to navigate the volatile trade landscape of the 2020s.
Show moreWow, this reads like a dispatch from the near future. Shearing provides what I can only describe as a "geopolitical MRI," revealing the hairline fractures in our global system before they turn into total breaks. The way he discusses "friend-shoring" versus total decoupling is both brilliant and terrifying. I appreciated how he didn't shy away from the impacts of the current political climate, including the mercurial nature of US leadership. The book is dense, yes, but in a way that rewards your attention with genuine "aha!" moments. It’s rare to find a book that balances data-driven economics with such a compelling narrative flair. If you’re unsettled by the headlines regarding AI and energy security, this book will give you the framework to understand them. Definitely a five-star contribution.
Show moreIn my experience, most books on the global economy are either too academic or too populist, but this one hits the sweet spot perfectly. Neil Shearing has managed to take the "dismal science" and turn it into a gripping story about human ambition and the return of old-school power politics. The chapter on the US dollar's longevity was particularly enlightening, as it challenged some of my preconceived notions about the rise of alternative currencies. It’s a cerebral read that stays with you long after you’ve put it down. The technical aspects are there, but they never feel like they’re drowning out the human element of the story. If you’re an international relations buff, you need this on your shelf immediately. Thanks to the publisher for the ARC!
Show moreThe chapter on semiconductor rivalries alone is worth the price of admission. Shearing maps out the conflict between the US and China with the precision of a surgeon, showing exactly where the pressure points are. I loved the way he connects the dots between energy weaponization and the future of EVs—it’s all part of the same fractured puzzle. The prose is surprisingly moving for a book about trade, largely because it focuses on the people and policies driving these massive shifts. My concentration didn't even flicker, which is a testament to how well-structured the arguments are. It feels prescient and urgent, like a warning we all need to heed before the cracks get any wider. A masterclass in modern geopolitics that clarifies the chaos of our current world.
Show morePicked this up thinking it would be another dry economics textbook, but Neil Shearing actually manages to weave human emotion into the cold reality of global trade. I was particularly struck by his "glass rivers" analogy for supply chains—it perfectly captures how fragile our current system really is. To be fair, some of the deeper dives into monetary policy required a second read, but the payoff is worth the effort. The book feels incredibly prescient, almost like reading a headline from next year. It’s a smart, layered exploration of how we’re moving away from total interdependence toward something much more fractured and uncertain. While it can be a bit heavy on the technical side, the prose remains engaging enough to keep you turning the page. If you want to understand why your favorite tech or meds are getting more expensive, start here.
Show moreAfter hearing so much buzz about The Fractured Age, I was curious to see if it lived up to the hype. I came away feeling strangely more at ease despite the heavy subject matter. Seeing the broad arc of globalization over the last century helped me realize that what we’re experiencing now is part of a larger, albeit painful, cycle of change. Shearing does an excellent job of explaining how geopolitics has become a cudgel in modern trade wars. My only minor gripe is that the book leans heavily into the diagnosis of the problem without offering much in the way of actionable solutions. Still, the prose is vivid and the analogies are sharp enough to make complex ideas stick. It’s a thought-provoking journey through a world coming apart at the seams.
Show moreFinally got around to reading this NetGalley copy and it couldn't be more timely. With the global political landscape shifting almost weekly, Shearing’s analysis of how trade and security are merging is spot on. I particularly liked the sections on "economic cudgels"—it’s a vivid way to describe how semiconductors and rare earths are being used as leverage. The writing is polished and the pacing is generally good, though some of the math-heavy sections might alienate a casual reader. Gotta say, seeing the first impacts of a second Trump term reflected in the context of these theories makes the whole thing feel incredibly relevant. It’s a smart, contemporary reference that I’ll likely return to as the "fractured age" continues to unfold. Highly recommended for business leaders.
Show moreEver wonder why the global economy feels like it’s held together by duct tape lately? Shearing tries to answer that, though I must admit my concentration wandered during the more technical sections on finance and trade law. The material is undeniably deep, yet there were moments where the density felt like a barrier rather than a benefit. Frankly, I think it’s a worthwhile read for the themes alone, but it requires a level of focus I didn’t always have at the end of a long workday. It provides a good historical context for deglobalization, helping to demystify why we are seeing a return to great-power competition. I just wish the writing were a bit more streamlined in the middle chapters. It’s a solid effort for those who aren't already policy wonks.
Show moreNot what I expected in terms of tone, as it’s much more of a "doom and gloom" forecast than I was prepared for. While the research is clearly meticulous and the global scope is impressive, the lack of "actionable optimism" left me feeling a bit drained by the end. The author is a brilliant economist, no doubt, but the book spends 90% of its time telling you why the system is breaking and only 10% on how we might survive the transition. In my experience, these types of books are more useful when they provide a roadmap for the future. That being said, the "glass rivers" metaphor is one of the best descriptions of supply chain fragility I've ever encountered. It’s a worthwhile read for the information, just be prepared for a heavy dose of reality.
Show moreLook, if you stay reasonably informed by reading any major financial newspaper, you probably won't find much "new" analysis here. The book makes a lot of grand assertions about the return of geopolitics, but I found the analytical reasoning to be a bit thin in places. It feels like a collection of news summaries expanded into a full-length volume. While the writing is clear, it lacks the depth of original research I was hoping for from someone of Shearing’s caliber. To be honest, it’s probably a great primer for someone who hasn't paid attention to trade wars or the semiconductor crisis over the last five years. For the rest of us, it’s a bit repetitive and light on fresh perspectives. I expected more than just a well-written recap of the status quo.
Show moreQuestions about this book
What is The Fractured Age by Neil Shearing about?
Shearing argues that the open globalization of the last three decades, which started when the Berlin Wall fell, is over. Shocks such as the pandemic, Russia’s use of energy as a weapon after invading Ukraine and the fight over semiconductors pushed governments to put security ahead of cost. In his view, the outcome is a world economy dividing into rival blocs headed by the United States and China, with every bloc setting its own rules, standards and supply chains.
Is the world deglobalizing, according to The Fractured Age?
No. Shearing’s point is that trade is not disappearing but reorganizing. Since 2020, he notes, trade inside blocs has grown three times as fast as trade between them. Companies are moving production to allied countries, a strategy called friend-shoring, and in 2023 Mexico overtook China as the largest trading partner of the United States. Connection continues, but increasingly along the lines of security alliances.
What are the economic blocs described in the book?
Shearing portrays an American camp that takes in India (increasingly), Japan, South Korea, Australia and most European states, and that coordinates chip policy and investment screening. A Chinese camp, built partly through the Belt and Road Initiative with over 150 signatory countries, spreads Chinese standards and payment systems. A third, multi-aligned group, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Singapore, deals with both sides and charges more for its cooperation.
How can businesses adapt to a fractured global economy?
Shearing points to companies with flexible structures that show different faces to different markets, and to a hub-and-spoke pattern in manufacturing, where final assembly happens near customers and components move within a bloc. He also warns that neutrality now carries rising costs, as a South Korean battery maker found in 2024. The practical step is to map which bloc each key input depends on and plan for the costs of choosing.
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