Austerity: When It Works and When It Doesn't
Three economists use decades of budget data from 16 wealthy countries to show that cutting public spending usually costs little growth, while raising taxes to close a deficit tends to cause long, deep recessions.

Table of Content
1. Introduction
1 min 03 sec
Most people hear the word austerity and picture one thing: pain, protests and a government voted out. Three economists studied decades of real budget plans and found two very different policies hiding under that word. In Austerity, Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi argue that how a government closes its deficit matters far more than when it does it. Cutting spending tends to cost an economy little, and sometimes nothing at all, while raising taxes tends to drag it into recessions that last for years.
Their evidence comes from austerity episodes across 16 wealthy countries, from the early 1980s into the 2010s. It covers Austria’s quick rebound, Ireland’s painful early 1980s, Britain’s turnaround after 2008 and the collapse in Greece. Follow the argument and the next budget fight in the news becomes something you can judge for yourself, starting with where the money comes from.
2. Understand why governments meet crises already in debt
1 min 45 sec
A seasonal worker knows to save in the busy months. Governments know it too, yet many arrive at a crash with empty pockets, and that leaves them with only two hard choices.
3. Factor in what people expect about tomorrow
1 min 58 sec
The classic model says cutting government spending always hits the economy hardest. The authors think that model leaves out something every household and investor does the moment a budget plan is announced.
4. Read a budget plan from the day it's announced
1 min 49 sec
A shrinking deficit can mean a government made brave choices, or simply that the economy got lucky. Telling the two apart forced the authors to track a date most studies ignore.
5. Cut spending and the economy can still grow
1 min 57 sec
Textbook theory says slashing public spending should shrink an economy. Two countries cut for years and watched output per person rise anyway, and the authors argue this was no fluke.
6. Learn how tax rises can deepen a recession
1 min 58 sec
Ireland set out to erase its deficit within five years and ended up deeper in debt. Portugal tried a similar route and shrank while its neighbors grew. The same mistake connects both.
7. Learn from Britain's recovery and Greece's collapse
1 min 57 sec
Two European countries tightened their budgets after the 2008 crash. One returned to growth and reelected its government; the other saw its debt soar. The difference involves more than bad luck.
8. Cut the deficit without losing the next election
1 min 52 sec
Conventional wisdom says any leader who tightens the budget is signing their own political death notice. Several governments in the 1990s and 2010s did it and stayed in power anyway.
9. Conclusion
1 min 12 sec
Alesina, Favero and Giavazzi end up replacing a single frightening word with a choice. Austerity, in their data, is two policies that happen to share a name. One trims what the state spends and usually costs a little growth, sometimes none, as Austria and Canada found. The other raises what citizens pay and tends to drag output down for years, as Ireland and Portugal learned. The case rests on announcement dates, budget shares and decades of results across 16 countries.
That changes how you can listen to the next budget debate. When a government says it must reduce its deficit, look first at the mix: how much comes from cuts and how much from taxes. Pay attention to the announcement itself, because households and investors start reacting that day. And treat the claim that austerity always loses elections with doubt, remembering the governments in Canada, Sweden, Finland and Britain that kept power.
Greece stands as the warning that no plan survives targets that could never be met. Everywhere else, the question that decides the outcome is where the savings come from.
About this book
What is this book about?
Since the 2008 financial crisis, austerity has been widely debated, and it is commonly assumed to be unpopular and to doom the governments that adopt it. Economists have argued about it for decades, often along ideological lines. To settle part of that dispute with evidence, Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi assembled a large dataset of deliberate deficit-reduction plans from 16 mostly wealthy countries between 1981 and 2014. Their central finding is that austerity is really two policies. Plans built mainly on spending cuts usually cause only a slight drop in output that eases a little in later years, and in Austria and Canada growth came alongside or soon after the cuts. Plans built mainly on tax rises tend to push economies into recessions that deepen over several years, as Ireland and Portugal found. The authors explain the gap through what Keynes's model leaves out: people's expectations, their incentives to work and investors' confidence. Readers also get the stories of Britain's recovery and Greece's collapse after 2008, and evidence that tough budgets do not automatically cost governments their next election. The result is a clear way to judge any budget plan in the news.
Book Information
Who it's for
Professionals following economic news
Professionals who follow economic news and want a clear way to judge government budget plans.
Economics or politics students
Students of economics or politics looking for evidence on austerity beyond the ideological shouting.
Policy staff and investors
Investors and policy staff who need to anticipate how deficit-cutting plans affect growth and confidence.
About the Author
Alberto Alesina
Alberto Alesina was Harvard's Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy from 2003 until his death in 2020. He applied economic methods to social and political questions, including culture, and has been described as nearly the sole founder of modern political economy. Carlo Favero holds the Deutsche Bank Professor title at Bocconi University, working in asset pricing and quantitative finance. Francesco Giavazzi, an Italian economist, is a professor of economics at Bocconi and a regular visiting professor at MIT.
Ratings & Reviews
Ratings at a glance
What people think
Listeners value the thorough, evidence-based analysis of fiscal strategy, although viewpoints differ concerning the authors' core beliefs about the positive aspects of austerity measures. Numerous listeners consider the evidence-driven findings persuasive, highlighting how the authors utilize past records to show that budget reductions focused on spending typically outperform tax-centric strategies. Furthermore, they appreciate the presence of vast data collections, and one listener observes that the work offers "solid insights" for evaluating reactions to crises. They also remark that despite the work being a heavy scholarly investigation, it provides an exhaustive exploration of fiscal issues. Finally, they describe it as "the best and most in-depth book" on the topic.
Top reviews
Ever wonder why some countries bounce back from a crisis while others stay stagnant for a decade? This book provides the most thorough and meticulous treatment of that question I have ever encountered in the literature. Alesina and his colleagues have done the heavy lifting by analyzing decades of fiscal policy across various nations to see what actually works. Their finding that expenditure-based austerity is far less damaging to growth than tax-based plans is a total game-changer for political economy. Look, it’s not exactly a light beach read, but the insights regarding business confidence and private investment are essential for anyone interested in macroeconomics. It’s the kind of work that forces you to rethink everything you thought you knew about the Great Recession and the role of government spending.
Show moreNot what I expected from a book on macroeconomics, as it manages to be both incredibly rigorous and deeply relevant to today's political landscape. Alesina and his team take on some of the biggest names in the field, like Blanchard and Krugman, and they do it with cold, hard facts. The way they debunk the idea that austerity is always a 'death spiral' by showing successful examples of expenditure cuts is absolutely masterful. To be fair, you need a decent grasp of economic principles to follow some of the more technical arguments about multipliers and zero bounds. However, the core message is clear: if you want to fix a deficit without killing the economy, you have to look at the spending side. This is easily the most important book on fiscal policy written in the last decade, and it deserves a spot on every policymaker’s shelf.
Show morePicked this up after seeing it cited in several economic journals, and it lived up to the hype as a rigorous piece of scholarship. The authors make a compelling case that not all austerity is created equal, drawing a sharp line between spending cuts and tax hikes. To be fair, it’s quite a dense read that might alienate a casual reader looking for a quick summary of fiscal policy. However, the sheer volume of historical data from the US and EU makes their conclusions about expenditure-based plans hard to ignore. They really dive into how private investment responds to these different strategies, showing that markets value spending discipline more than revenue grabs. While the prose is dry, the depth of the empirical research is truly unmatched in this field.
Show moreThe chapter on the UK’s experience during the Cameron era was particularly enlightening and challenged a lot of my preconceived notions about austerity. For years, we’ve heard that the IMF was right to criticize these moves, but the authors show that the predicted recession never actually materialized. Not gonna lie, I was skeptical of the idea that cutting spending could actually lead to growth, but the evidence presented here is quite persuasive. They argue that when governments show fiscal restraint, it signals to businesses that future taxes won’t skyrocket, which encourages long-term investment. My only real gripe is that the writing style is very academic and lacks the punchy, accessible tone of authors like Paul Krugman. Still, if you want the real data behind the headlines, this is the book you need to read.
Show moreFinally got around to finishing this massive study, and the amount of labor that went into compiling these fiscal episodes is staggering. The authors don't just throw out theories; they provide the actual databases for readers to scrutinize, which adds a layer of transparency missing from most economic texts. Personally, I found the distinction between tax-based and expenditure-based plans to be the most useful part of their analysis for current policy debates. It’s clear that tax hikes have a much more immediate and lasting negative impact on a country's GDP than most politicians want to admit. While the theory of rational expectations they use to explain consumer behavior felt a bit shaky to me, the empirical results are hard to argue with. It's a dense, challenging book that demands your full attention but rewards you with real, data-backed insights.
Show moreAfter hearing so much buzz about this book in the context of recent global inflation, I decided to see if the arguments still held up. The authors provide a very thorough treatment of how governments should respond to debt, but I wonder how much the post-COVID landscape changes their calculus. For instance, the rise of Modern Monetary Theory has shifted the conversation in ways this 2019 book couldn't have fully anticipated. The truth is that while the historical data is interesting, the world feels very different now than it did when these case studies were being compiled. I still think the core finding—that spending cuts are less harmful than tax increases—is probably correct, but the book feels a bit like a relic of a previous era. It’s worth reading for the methodology alone.
Show moreReading this book in the wake of recent political shifts in Argentina really highlights how relevant Alesina's research has become. The book is definitely not for the average reader, as it’s essentially a 300-page research paper, but the clarity of its findings is refreshing. They show that when you cut the fat from government budgets, the private sector eventually steps in to fill the gap through increased investment. I wish the authors had spent a little more time on the social implications and the human reality of these cuts, but as a purely economic study, it’s top-tier. It definitely helped me understand why certain 'tough' policies are necessary for long-term stability even when they are unpopular. If you want a data-driven look at fiscal responsibility, this is it.
Show moreAs someone who spends a lot of time looking at fiscal trends, I appreciated the data-driven approach, but the book is a bit of a slog. It functions more like a series of expanded journal articles than a cohesive narrative, which makes it difficult to get through in one sitting. The truth is that while the empirical work is top-notch, the authors sometimes gloss over the political realities that make spending cuts so difficult to implement. I found the sections on the UK’s post-2010 recovery interesting, though I wish they had addressed the long-term impacts on public services more directly. It’s a solid resource for researchers, but the average reader might find the heavy reliance on equations and technical jargon to be a bit much. A valuable but very dry contribution to the field.
Show moreThis book attempts to revive the 'expansionary austerity' idea, but I remain somewhat skeptical of the authors' interpretation of certain historical examples. They lean heavily on the idea that cutting government programs magically boosts business confidence, a theory that Paul Krugman has famously ridiculed. In my experience, these mathematical models often fail to account for the unique cultural and political contexts that allow certain countries to survive fiscal contraction. The datasets are massive and the academic rigor is undeniable, yet the results feel like they lean into a specific ideological camp. If you are looking for a balanced view of fiscal policy, this is a dense but necessary read, even if it feels a bit one-sided. I appreciated the depth of the research, but the 'confidence fairy' argument still feels like a reach for me personally.
Show moreWow, I really wanted to like this, but I found the underlying philosophy to be incredibly frustrating and poorly defended. The authors treat the inherent goodness of reducing deficits as a self-evident truth without ever addressing the human cost of these policies. Frankly, it feels like an attempt to dress up a political agenda in the clinical language of data and regressions. They talk about the 'confidence fairy' as if it’s an absolute law of nature, ignoring how these cuts decimate social safety nets for the most vulnerable. While the effort put into the datasets is impressive, the conclusions feel like they were reached before the research even began. It’s an academic echo chamber that fails to engage with the real-world misery that often follows these 'expansionary' measures.
Show moreQuestions about this book
What is the main idea of Austerity by Alesina, Favero and Giavazzi?
The authors argue that austerity is two different policies. Plans that reduce a deficit mainly through spending cuts usually cause only a small, brief dip in output and sometimes come with growth. Plans built mainly on tax increases tend to cause recessions that deepen over several years. Their evidence comes from deliberate deficit-reduction plans in 16 mostly wealthy countries between 1981 and 2014.
How does Austerity challenge Keynes?
Keynes’s model holds that cutting government spending hurts output more than the size of the cut, while tax rises do less harm. The authors argue that even updated versions of this model ignore how budget announcements change people’s expectations, their incentives to work and investors’ confidence. Once those effects are included, their data show spending cuts doing far less damage than tax rises.
What is expansionary austerity?
It is the case where a government cuts spending and the economy grows anyway, the multiplier effect running in reverse. The authors say it is not the norm but not exceptional either. In Austria in the early 1980s, where the cuts were mostly on the spending side, GDP per person grew by 2 percent in 1982 and then 3 percent in 1983, and Canada kept growing despite repeated cuts in the 1990s.
Why did austerity fail in Greece?
Greece made cuts adding up to 20 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2014, and its debt still reached 180 percent of GDP. The authors explain that savings on that scale were never achievable, international bodies imposed the measures harshly, default was ruled out during a tense international situation, and the economy was already in deep trouble when the cuts began.
Does austerity always cost governments the next election?
No, according to the authors. Austerity-minded governments won reelection in Canada in 1997, then in Sweden the following year, and in Finland a year after that; in 2015 Britain’s Conservatives also won a majority after five years of austerity that relied mainly on cutting spending. Elections depend on many factors, so there is no universal rule, but the belief that austerity guarantees defeat is probably wrong.
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